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11.3 Problems on Mathematical Expectation

Expected values of discrete and absolutely continuous variables and of functions of them, in lottery, insurance-style and demand scenarios.

Applied Probability, 11.3 Problems on Mathematical Expectation

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27 exercises

11.3 Exercise 4

(See Exercise 5 from "Problems on Distribution and Density Functions"). In a thunderstorm in a national park there are 127 lightning strikes. Experience shows that the probability of of a lightning strike starting a fire is about 0.0083. Determine the expected number of fires.

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11.3 Exercise 5

(See Exercise 8 from "Problems on Distribution and Density Functions"). Two coins are flipped twenty times. Let X be the number of matches (both heads or both tails). Determine E[X]E \left[X\right].

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11.3 Exercise 6

(See Exercise 12 from "Problems on Distribution and Density Functions"). A residential College plans to raise money by selling “chances” on a board. Fifty chances are sold. A player pays $10 to play; he or she wins $30 with probability p=0.2p = 0 . 2. The profit to the College is

X = 50 · 10 - 30 N , where N is the number of winners X = 50 \cdot 10 - 30 N , \text{where} N \text{is} \text{the} \text{number} \text{of} \text{winners}

Determine the expected profit E[X]E \left[X\right].

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11.3 Exercise 7

(See Exercise 19 from "Problems on Distribution and Density Functions"). The number of noise pulses arriving on a power circuit in an hour is a random quantity having Poisson (7) distribution. What is the expected number of pulses in an hour?

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11.3 Exercise 8

(See Exercise 24 and Exercise 25 from "Problems on Distribution and Density Functions"). The total operating time for the units in Exercise 24 is a random variable T∼T \sim gamma (20, 0.0002). What is the expected operating time?

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11.3 Exercise 9

(See Exercise 41 from "Problems on Distribution and Density Functions"). Random variable X has density function

f X ( t ) = ( 6 / 5 ) t 2 for 0 ≤ t ≤ 1 ( 6 / 5 ) ( 2 - t ) for 1 < t ≤ 2 = I [ 0 , 1 ] ( t ) 6 5 t 2 + I ( 1 , 2 ] ( t ) 6 5 ( 2 - t ) f_{X} \left(t\right) = \left\{\begin{matrix} \left(6 / 5\right) t^{2} & \text{for} 0 \leq t \leq 1 \\ \left(6 / 5\right) \left(2 - t\right) & \text{for} 1 < t \leq 2 \end{matrix}\right = I \left[0 , 1\right] \left(t\right) \frac{6}{5} t^{2} + I_{\left(1 , 2\right]} \left(t\right) \frac{6}{5} \left(2 - t\right)

What is the expected value E[X]E \left[X\right]?

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11.3 Exercise 10

Truncated exponential. Suppose X∼X \sim exponential (λ)\left(\lambda\right) and Y=I[0,a](X)X+I(a,∞)(X)aY = I_{\left[0 , a\right]} \left(X\right) X + I_{\left(a , \infty\right)} \left(X\right) a.

  1. Use the fact that
    ∫0∞te-λtdt=1λ2and∫a∞te-λtdt=1λ2e-λa(1+λa)\int_{0}^{\infty} t e^{- \lambda t} d t = \frac{1}{\lambda^{2}} \text{and} \int_{a}^{\infty} t e^{- \lambda t} d t = \frac{1}{\lambda^{2}} e^{- \lambda a} \left(1 + \lambda a\right)
    to determine an expression for E[Y]E \left[Y\right].
  2. Use the approximation method, with λ=1/50,a=30\lambda = 1 / 50 , a = 30. Approximate the exponential at 10,000 points for 0≤t≤10000 \leq t \leq 1000. Compare the approximate result with the theoretical result of part (a).
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11.3 Exercise 20

(See Exercise 10 from "Problems On Random Vectors and Joint Distributions"). fXY(t,u)=1f_{X Y} \left(t , u\right) = 1 for 0≤t≤10 \leq t \leq 1, 0≤u≤2(1-t)0 \leq u \leq 2 \left(1 - t\right).

f X ( t ) = 2 ( 1 - t ) , 0 ≤ t ≤ 1 , f Y ( u ) = 1 - u / 2 , 0 ≤ u ≤ 2 f_{X} \left(t\right) = 2 \left(1 - t\right) , 0 \leq t \leq 1 , f_{Y} \left(u\right) = 1 - u / 2 , 0 \leq u \leq 2
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11.3 Exercise 21

(See Exercise 11 from "Problems On Random Vectors and Joint Distributions"). fXY(t,u)=1/2f_{X Y} \left(t , u\right) = 1 / 2 on the square with vertices at (1,0),(2,1),(1,2),(0,1)\left(1 , 0\right) , \left(2 , 1\right) , \left(1 , 2\right) , \left(0 , 1\right).

f X ( t ) = f Y ( t ) = I [ 0 , 1 ] ( t ) t + I ( 1 , 2 ] ( t ) ( 2 - t ) f_{X} \left(t\right) = f_{Y} \left(t\right) = I_{\left[0 , 1\right]} \left(t\right) t + I_{\left(1 , 2\right]} \left(t\right) \left(2 - t\right)
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11.3 Exercise 22

(See Exercise 12 from "Problems On Random Vectors and Joint Distributions"). fXY(t,u)=4t(1-u)f_{X Y} \left(t , u\right) = 4 t \left(1 - u\right) for 0≤t≤10 \leq t \leq 1, 0≤u≤10 \leq u \leq 1.

f X ( t ) = 2 t , 0 ≤ t ≤ 1 , f Y ( u ) = 2 ( 1 - u ) , 0 ≤ u ≤ 1 f_{X} \left(t\right) = 2 t , 0 \leq t \leq 1 , f_{Y} \left(u\right) = 2 \left(1 - u\right) , 0 \leq u \leq 1
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11.3 Exercise 23

(See Exercise 13 from "Problems On Random Vectors and Joint Distributions"). fXY(t,u)=18(t+u)f_{X Y} \left(t , u\right) = \frac{1}{8} \left(t + u\right) for 0≤t≤20 \leq t \leq 2, 0≤u≤20 \leq u \leq 2.

f X ( t ) = f Y ( t ) = 1 4 ( t + 1 ) , 0 ≤ t ≤ 2 f_{X} \left(t\right) = f_{Y} \left(t\right) = \frac{1}{4} \left(t + 1\right) , 0 \leq t \leq 2
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11.3 Exercise 24

(See Exercise 14 from "Problems On Random Vectors and Joint Distributions"). fXY(t,u)=4ue-2tf_{X Y} \left(t , u\right) = 4 u e^{- 2 t} for 0≤t,0≤u≤10 \leq t , 0 \leq u \leq 1.

f X ( t ) = 2 e - 2 t , 0 ≤ t , f Y ( u ) = 2 u , 0 ≤ u ≤ 1 f_{X} \left(t\right) = 2 e^{- 2 t} , 0 \leq t , f_{Y} \left(u\right) = 2 u , 0 \leq u \leq 1
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11.3 Exercise 25

(See Exercise 15 from "Problems On Random Vectors and Joint Distributions"). fXY(t,u)=388(2t+3u2)f_{X Y} \left(t , u\right) = \frac{3}{88} \left(2 t + 3 u^{2}\right) for 0≤t≤20 \leq t \leq 2, 0≤u≤1+t0 \leq u \leq 1 + t.

f X ( t ) = 3 88 ( 1 + t ) ( 1 + 4 t + t 2 ) = 3 88 ( 1 + 5 t + 5 t 2 + t 3 ) , 0 ≤ t ≤ 2 f_{X} \left(t\right) = \frac{3}{88} \left(1 + t\right) \left(1 + 4 t + t^{2}\right) = \frac{3}{88} \left(1 + 5 t + 5 t^{2} + t^{3}\right) , 0 \leq t \leq 2
f Y ( u ) = I [ 0 , 1 ] ( u ) 3 88 ( 6 u 2 + 4 ) + I ( 1 , 3 ] ( u ) 3 88 ( 3 + 2 u + 8 u 2 - 3 u 3 ) f_{Y} \left(u\right) = I_{\left[0 , 1\right]} \left(u\right) \frac{3}{88} \left(6 u^{2} + 4\right) + I_{\left(1 , 3\right]} \left(u\right) \frac{3}{88} \left(3 + 2 u + 8 u^{2} - 3 u^{3}\right)
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11.3 Exercise 26

(See Exercise 16 from "Problems On Random Vectors and Joint Distributions"). fXY(t,u)=12t2uf_{X Y} \left(t , u\right) = 12 t^{2} u on the parallelogram with vertices

( - 1 , 0 ) , ( 0 , 0 ) , ( 1 , 1 ) , ( 0 , 1 ) \left(- 1 , 0\right) , \left(0 , 0\right) , \left(1 , 1\right) , \left(0 , 1\right)
f X ( t ) = I [ - 1 , 0 ] ( t ) 6 t 2 ( t + 1 ) 2 + I ( 0 , 1 ] ( t ) 6 t 2 ( 1 - t 2 ) , f Y ( u ) = 12 u 3 - 12 u 2 + 4 u , 0 ≤ u ≤ 1 f_{X} \left(t\right) = I_{\left[- 1 , 0\right]} \left(t\right) 6 t^{2} \left(t + 1\right)^{2} + I_{\left(0 , 1\right]} \left(t\right) 6 t^{2} \left(1 - t^{2}\right) , f_{Y} \left(u\right) = 12 u^{3} - 12 u^{2} + 4 u , 0 \leq u \leq 1
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11.3 Exercise 27

(See Exercise 17 from "Problems On Random Vectors and Joint Distributions"). fXY(t,u)=2411tuf_{X Y} \left(t , u\right) = \frac{24}{11} t u for 0≤t≤20 \leq t \leq 2, 0≤u≤min{1,2-t}0 \leq u \leq \min \left\{1 , 2 - t\right\}.

f X ( t ) = I [ 0 , 1 ] ( t ) 12 11 t + I ( 1 , 2 ] ( t ) 12 11 t ( 2 - t ) 2 , f Y ( u ) = 12 11 u ( u - 2 ) 2 , 0 ≤ u ≤ 1 f_{X} \left(t\right) = I_{\left[0 , 1\right]} \left(t\right) \frac{12}{11} t + I_{\left(1 , 2\right]} \left(t\right) \frac{12}{11} t \left(2 - t\right)^{2} , f_{Y} \left(u\right) = \frac{12}{11} u \left(u - 2\right)^{2} , 0 \leq u \leq 1
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11.3 Exercise 28

(See Exercise 18 from "Problems On Random Vectors and Joint Distributions"). fXY(t,u)=323(t+2u)f_{X Y} \left(t , u\right) = \frac{3}{23} \left(t + 2 u\right) for 0≤t≤20 \leq t \leq 2, 0≤u≤max{2-t,t}0 \leq u \leq \max \left\{2 - t , t\right\}.

f X ( t ) = I [ 0 , 1 ] ( t ) 6 23 ( 2 - t ) + I ( 1 , 2 ] ( t ) 6 23 t 2 , f Y ( u ) = I [ 0 , 1 ] ( u ) 6 23 ( 2 u + 1 ) + I ( 1 , 2 ] ( u ) 3 23 ( 4 + 6 u - 4 u 2 ) f_{X} \left(t\right) = I_{\left[0 , 1\right]} \left(t\right) \frac{6}{23} \left(2 - t\right) + I_{\left(1 , 2\right]} \left(t\right) \frac{6}{23} t^{2} , f_{Y} \left(u\right) = I_{\left[0 , 1\right]} \left(u\right) \frac{6}{23} \left(2 u + 1\right) + I_{\left(1 , 2\right]} \left(u\right) \frac{3}{23} \left(4 + 6 u - 4 u^{2}\right)
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11.3 Exercise 29

(See Exercise 19 from "Problems On Random Vectors and Joint Distributions"). fXY(t,u)=12179(3t2+u)f_{X Y} \left(t , u\right) = \frac{12}{179} \left(3 t^{2} + u\right), for 0≤t≤20 \leq t \leq 2, 0≤u≤min{2,3-t}0 \leq u \leq \min \left\{2 , 3 - t\right\}.

f X ( t ) = I [ 0 , 1 ] ( t ) 24 179 ( 3 t 2 + 1 ) + I ( 1 , 2 ] ( t ) 6 179 ( 9 - 6 t + 19 t 2 - 6 t 3 ) f_{X} \left(t\right) = I_{\left[0 , 1\right]} \left(t\right) \frac{24}{179} \left(3 t^{2} + 1\right) + I_{\left(1 , 2\right]} \left(t\right) \frac{6}{179} \left(9 - 6 t + 19 t^{2} - 6 t^{3}\right)
f Y ( u ) = I [ 0 , 1 ] ( u ) 24 179 ( 4 + u ) + I ( 1 , 2 ] ( u ) 12 179 ( 27 - 24 u + 8 u 2 - u 3 ) f_{Y} \left(u\right) = I_{\left[0 , 1\right]} \left(u\right) \frac{24}{179} \left(4 + u\right) + I_{\left(1 , 2\right]} \left(u\right) \frac{12}{179} \left(27 - 24 u + 8 u^{2} - u^{3}\right)
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11.3 Exercise 30

(See Exercise 20 from "Problems On Random Vectors and Joint Distributions"). fXY(t,u)=12227(3t+2tu)f_{X Y} \left(t , u\right) = \frac{12}{227} \left(3 t + 2 t u\right), for 0≤t≤20 \leq t \leq 2, 0≤u≤min{1+t,2}0 \leq u \leq \min \left\{1 + t , 2\right\}.

f X ( t ) = I [ 0 , 1 ] ( t ) 12 227 ( t 3 + 5 t 2 + 4 t ) + I ( 1 , 2 ] ( t ) 120 227 t f_{X} \left(t\right) = I_{\left[0 , 1\right]} \left(t\right) \frac{12}{227} \left(t^{3} + 5 t^{2} + 4 t\right) + I_{\left(1 , 2\right]} \left(t\right) \frac{120}{227} t
f Y ( u ) = I [ 0 , 1 ] ( u ) 24 227 ( 2 u + 3 ) + I ( 1 , 2 ] ( u ) 6 227 ( 2 u + 3 ) ( 3 + 2 u - u 2 ) f_{Y} \left(u\right) = I_{\left[0 , 1\right]} \left(u\right) \frac{24}{227} \left(2 u + 3\right) + I_{\left(1 , 2\right]} \left(u\right) \frac{6}{227} \left(2 u + 3\right) \left(3 + 2 u - u^{2}\right)
= I [ 0 , 1 ] ( u ) 24 227 ( 2 u + 3 ) + I ( 1 , 2 ] ( u ) 6 227 ( 9 + 12 u + u 2 - 2 u 3 ) = I_{\left[0 , 1\right]} \left(u\right) \frac{24}{227} \left(2 u + 3\right) + I_{\left(1 , 2\right]} \left(u\right) \frac{6}{227} \left(9 + 12 u + u^{2} - 2 u^{3}\right)
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11.3 Exercise 31

(See Exercise 21 from "Problems On Random Vectors and Joint Distributions"). fXY(t,u)=213(t+2u)f_{X Y} \left(t , u\right) = \frac{2}{13} \left(t + 2 u\right), for 0≤t≤20 \leq t \leq 2, 0≤u≤min{2t,3-t}0 \leq u \leq \min \left\{2 t , 3 - t\right\}.

f X ( t ) = I [ 0 , 1 ] ( t ) 12 13 t 2 + I ( 1 , 2 ] ( t ) 6 13 ( 3 - t ) f_{X} \left(t\right) = I_{\left[0 , 1\right]} \left(t\right) \frac{12}{13} t^{2} + I_{\left(1 , 2\right]} \left(t\right) \frac{6}{13} \left(3 - t\right)
f Y ( u ) = I [ 0 , 1 ] ( u ) ( 4 13 + 8 13 u - 9 52 u 2 ) + I ( 1 , 2 ] ( u ) ( 9 13 + 6 13 u - 21 52 u 2 ) f_{Y} \left(u\right) = I_{\left[0 , 1\right]} \left(u\right) \left(\frac{4}{13} + \frac{8}{13} u - \frac{9}{52} u^{2}\right) + I_{\left(1 , 2\right]} \left(u\right) \left(\frac{9}{13} + \frac{6}{13} u - \frac{21}{52} u^{2}\right)
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11.3 Exercise 32

(See Exercise 22 from "Problems On Random Vectors and Joint Distributions"). fXY(t,u)=I[0,1](t)38(t2+2u)+I(1,2](t)914t2u2f_{X Y} \left(t , u\right) = I_{\left[0 , 1\right]} \left(t\right) \frac{3}{8} \left(t^{2} + 2 u\right) + I_{\left(1 , 2\right]} \left(t\right) \frac{9}{14} t^{2} u^{2},

                                     for 0≤u≤10 \leq u \leq 1.

f X ( t ) = I [ 0 , 1 ] ( t ) 3 8 ( t 2 + 1 ) + I ( 1 , 2 ] ( t ) 3 14 t 2 , f Y ( u ) = 1 8 + 3 4 u + 3 2 u 2 0 ≤ u ≤ 1 f_{X} \left(t\right) = I_{\left[0 , 1\right]} \left(t\right) \frac{3}{8} \left(t^{2} + 1\right) + I_{\left(1 , 2\right]} \left(t\right) \frac{3}{14} t^{2} , f_{Y} \left(u\right) = \frac{1}{8} + \frac{3}{4} u + \frac{3}{2} u^{2} 0 \leq u \leq 1
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11.3 Exercise 34

(See Exercise 5 from "Problems on Functions of Random Variables") The cultural committee of a student organization has arranged a special deal for tickets to a concert. The agreement is that the organization will purchase ten tickets at $20 each (regardless of the number of individual buyers). Additional tickets are available according to the following schedule:

11-20, $18 each; 21-30 $16 eac…

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11.3 Exercise 36

For the pair {X,Y}\left\{X , Y\right\} in the exercise, let

W = g X , Y ) = X for X + Y ≤ 4 2 Y for X + Y > 4 = I M ( X , Y ) X + I M c ( X , Y ) 2 Y W = g X , Y \left.\right) = \left\{\begin{matrix} X & \text{for} X + Y \leq 4 \\ 2 Y & \text{for} X + Y > 4 \end{matrix}\right = I_{M} \left(X , Y\right) X + I_{M^{c}} \left(X , Y\right) 2 Y

Determine E[W]E \left[W\right] and E[W2]E \left[W^{2}\right].

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11.3 Exercise 37

fXY(t,u)=388(2t+3u2)f_{X Y} \left(t , u\right) = \frac{3}{88} \left(2 t + 3 u^{2}\right) for 0≤t≤20 \leq t \leq 2, 0≤u≤1+t0 \leq u \leq 1 + t (see the exercise).

Z = I [ 0 , 1 ] ( X ) 4 X + I ( 1 , 2 ] ( X ) ( X + Y ) Z = I_{\left[0 , 1\right]} \left(X\right) 4 X + I_{\left(1 , 2\right]} \left(X\right) \left(X + Y\right)
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11.3 Exercise 38

fXY(t,u)=2411tuf_{X Y} \left(t , u\right) = \frac{24}{11} t u for 0≤t≤20 \leq t \leq 2, 0≤u≤min{1,2-t}0 \leq u \leq \min \left\{1 , 2 - t\right\} (see the exercise).

Z = I M ( X , Y ) 1 2 X + I M c ( X , Y ) Y 2 , M = { ( t , u ) : u > t } Z = I_{M} \left(X , Y\right) \frac{1}{2} X + I_{M^{c}} \left(X , Y\right) Y^{2} , M = \left\{\left(t , u\right) : u > t\right\}
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11.3 Exercise 39

fXY(t,u)=323(t+2u)f_{X Y} \left(t , u\right) = \frac{3}{23} \left(t + 2 u\right) for 0≤t≤20 \leq t \leq 2, 0≤u≤max{2-t,t}0 \leq u \leq \max \left\{2 - t , t\right\} (see the exercise).

Z = I M ( X , Y ) ( X + Y ) + I M c ( X , Y ) 2 Y , M = { ( t , u ) : max ( t , u ) ≤ 1 } Z = I_{M} \left(X , Y\right) \left(X + Y\right) + I_{M^{c}} \left(X , Y\right) 2 Y , M = \left\{\left(t , u\right) : \max \left(t , u\right) \leq 1\right\}
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11.3 Exercise 40

fXY(t,u)=12179(3t2+u)f_{X Y} \left(t , u\right) = \frac{12}{179} \left(3 t^{2} + u\right), for 0≤t≤20 \leq t \leq 2, 0≤u≤min{2,3-t}0 \leq u \leq \min \left\{2 , 3 - t\right\} (see the exercise).

Z = I M ( X , Y ) ( X + Y ) + I M c ( X , Y ) 2 Y 2 , M = { ( t , u ) : t ≤ 1 , u ≥ 1 } Z = I_{M} \left(X , Y\right) \left(X + Y\right) + I_{M^{c}} \left(X , Y\right) 2 Y^{2} , M = \left\{\left(t , u\right) : t \leq 1 , u \geq 1\right\}
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11.3 Exercise 41

fXY(t,u)=12227(3t+2tu)f_{X Y} \left(t , u\right) = \frac{12}{227} \left(3 t + 2 t u\right), for 0≤t≤20 \leq t \leq 2, 0≤u≤min{1+t,2}0 \leq u \leq \min \left\{1 + t , 2\right\} (see the exercise).

Z = I M ( X , Y ) X + I M c ( X , Y ) X Y , M = { ( t , u ) : u ≤ min ( 1 , 2 - t ) } Z = I_{M} \left(X , Y\right) X + I_{M^{c}} \left(X , Y\right) X Y , M = \left\{\left(t , u\right) : u \leq \min \left(1 , 2 - t\right)\right\}
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Adapted from Applied Probability © 2009 Paul E. Pfeiffer. Licensed under CC BY 3.0. Source: Applied Probability. Imported at revision d7a0420.